Post Expertise Scarcity

There’s a scene in the early-2000s medical sitcom Scrubs where an older hotshot doctor is visiting a patient. He reads off a bunch of stats about her medical tests and tells her all about her diagnosis, but she constantly finishes his sentences before him. How? Google. She’s using this new-fangled device called a smartphone¹ and looking up all the answers faster than he can even say them.

She’s convinced that she doesn’t need a doctor. She can look up whatever she needs to on Google.

Post Information Scarcity

Twenty or so years later, that scene practically seems quaint now. What used to be novel and somewhat rare is now so commonplace that it’s taken for granted. Everyone has a smartphone, and everyone has Google, and everyone thinks they know everything. Everyone thinks that they can prove someone wrong with just a bit of internet research. We even have a word for it now, factchecker.

But alas, hindsight is indeed 20/20. We obviously know that a mere Google search is not a good replacement for a doctor. Sure, she can look up any information she wants instantaneously, but most of that information is crap. All of us have encountered someone who thinks that they know more than the experts just because they can search up the answers to any question. But quite often, that person is proven to be a fool after just a few more Google searches.

Evidently, the patient in that scene thought that she didn’t need experts because she could find any answer instantly. And evidently, she was wrong. We do still need experts.

That certainly is the argument of Cal Newport’s book Deep Work. I finally started reading this book a few weeks ago, and that is one of the core takeaways that I got from it: We have entered an age of post information scarcity. It used to be that if you wanted to know the things that doctors know, then you had no other choice than to go to medical school. That information was locked away in lecture halls and expensive textbooks behind brutally hard entrance exams and shockingly steep tuitions. But now that information is just a Google search away. Getting the information is no longer a problem. We live in an age of post information scarcity. In this new age, it is no longer extremely valuable to simply be someone who knows more information than those around you. What’s truly valuable is to be an expert, someone who has taken the time and effort to deeply understand a topic and master a skill.

When I read this idea from Deep Work, I was struck by how insightful it was. I was also struck to realize that it’s not true anymore.

Post Expertise Scarcity

What if I told you that you can ask deep questions in any topic and receive deep answers with citations in a matter of minutes, often just a few seconds? That reality is already here today, and it has many names: DeepSeek R1, ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc., ad nauseam.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m fully aware that these systems are not perfect. Far from perfect, they are also hilariously wrong at times. But that doesn’t matter, and here is why:

1. They are improving rapidly. They are far more accurate than they were even two years ago.
2. They answer far faster than any human, even experts. Even a wrong answer can help you in your search for the right answer. And AI generates 20 wrong answers before an expert human has the chance to finish their first answer.
3. They never get tired, and they are available 24/7 worldwide. This is the final nail in the coffin. No human expert will ever be able to compete on this metric.

We have entered an age of post expertise scarcity. It used to be that if you wanted the deep knowledge and understanding that only experts have, then you had no other choice than to become or hire an expert. That information was locked away behind paywalls, invoices, subscription fees, and a million other mechanisms. But now that expertise is just a prompt away. Finding expert opinions is no longer a problem. We live in an age of post expertise scarcity. In this new age, it is no longer extremely valuable to simply be an expert at a particular topic or skill. What’s truly valuable is…

🤔 Hmm… I need to think more about that. But that’s a thought for another day…